The Houthis, Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen who have launched recent drone and missile attacks on Israeli and American targets, are emerging as an unpredictable and dangerous wild card in the Middle East — the proxies that Iran considers most suited to widening the war with Israel.
Analysts close to the Iranian government said the Houthis’ base in Yemen makes them ideally positioned to escalate fighting in the region, in the hopes of pressuring Israel to end its war with Hamas in Gaza.
The analysts’ assessment tracks with descriptions of a plan by Iran and its network of militias to increase attacks on Israeli and American targets in the region, according to two Iranians affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The Houthis, the analysts said, are Iran’s chosen proxies because from Yemen they are both close enough to the Red Sea’s strategic waterways to disrupt global shipping, and far enough from Israel to make retaliatory strikes difficult. Unlike Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that has struck Israel from Lebanon, the Houthis are not beholden to domestic political dynamics — making them effectively accountable to no one.
Two senior Israeli defense officials said their intelligence confirmed that Iran’s leaders were pushing the regional militias to intensify their attacks against Israel. They said Israel’s defense and intelligence circles were alarmed by the recent Houthi attacks and considered the threat serious enough that military intelligence had established a special unit dedicated to threats coming from Yemen. In recent years, they said, Israeli intelligence had also predicted the next war would be fought on multiple fronts, mentioning the Houthis and other Iranian proxies.
Already, the Houthis have used their proximity to major shipping lanes to attack commercial vessels and threaten U.S. warships. A further escalation along the same routes could disrupt global shipping, analysts said.
“We think Houthis in Yemen will become more of a threat to Israel in the long term than Hamas or even Hezbollah,” said Nasser Imani, a political analyst in Tehran who is close to the government. “Iran considers them a major player and part of the collective strategy of the resistance axis.”
On Thursday, John F. Kirby, a national security spokesman for President Biden, said the Houthi attacks threatened to escalate tensions in the region: “It’s clearly a risk to the potential widening and deepening of the conflict.”
The network of Iran-backed regional militias, known as the axis of resistance, includes Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as several militia groups in Iraq and Syria. Since Israel declared war on Hamas after the group launched a terrorist attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, other axis members have opened secondary fronts against Israel in a restrained manner, stopping short of igniting an all-out war. Militias in Iraq and Syria have attacked American military bases more than 70 times with drones and rockets.
As Israel expands its war in Gaza — in which more than 15,000 people, many of them women and children, have been killed, according to Gazan health officials — the axis groups have concluded they must significantly raise the prospect of a regional war to force a cease-fire, according to the Iranians affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.
据隶属于革命卫队的伊朗人说，胡塞的新计划包括袭击在红海航行的以色列和美国船只。他们说，伊朗支持的伊拉克和叙利亚民兵还会增加对美国军事基地的袭击，目的是造成伤害和破坏。
他们补充说，另一个目标是破坏海上安全、全球航运和能源供应的稳定。
这两名伊朗人说，伊朗革命卫队正在向胡塞武装提供情报，帮助他们识别红海上的以色列船只。
西方官员表示，这些情报是由卫队在也门海岸附近的一艘船只收集的。最近，一名西方高级国防官员和一名熟悉计划的伊朗人都表示，伊朗还在伊朗南部建立了一个情报前哨站，将以色列船只的信息传递给胡塞武装。
伊朗外交部长侯赛因·阿米尔·阿卜杜拉希安(Hossein Amir abdullahian)在公开场合以及最近接受《纽约时报》采访时，都否认伊朗控制着胡塞武装和其他民兵组织。但伊朗高级军事官员和顾问在公开演讲和社交媒体帖子中表示，伊朗正在武装、支持民兵，并与他们进行协调。
尽管伊朗计划利用胡塞武装作为更大地区战略中的棋子，但以色列和美国情报官员表示，胡塞武装存在严重的误判风险，可能会在不经意间挑起一场更大规模的地区战争，而伊朗官员表示，他们不希望发生这样的战争。
本周，胡塞武装向一艘美国海军驱逐舰发射了无人机。美国官员和其他专家质疑，如果胡塞武装的行动失去控制，伊朗是否能控制住他们。
“对于胡塞这样的组织来说，这是一场很难调整的游戏，他们不仅是狂热分子，而且几乎没有什么可失去的，”国际危机组织(International Crisis group)伊朗事务主管阿里·瓦伊兹(Ali Vaez)说。“有很多紧张点。战争持续的时间越长，紧张局势完全失控的风险就越大。”
周三，美国海军击落了一架向曼德海峡发射的胡塞武装无人机。曼德海峡是通往红海的狭窄入口，繁忙的商船和油轮络绎不绝。胡塞武装还表示，他们向以色列埃拉特发射了一系列弹道导弹。
周日，胡塞武装在红海对三艘商船发动了袭击。美国海军在一份声明中表示，美国驱逐舰“卡尼号”(uss Carney)击落了一架朝它飞来的胡塞无人机。
据伊朗和也门的新闻媒体报道，胡塞海军指挥官穆罕默德阿里加德里上将(Gen. Mohammad Ali al-Ghaderi)在谈到周日的空袭时说:“我们国土的水域将成为犹太复国主义敌人船只的墓地。”
华盛顿正在认真对待这一威胁。本周，美国派遣也门问题特使蒂姆?伦德金(Tim Lenderking)前往波斯湾，与地区盟友就如何保障红海和亚丁湾的海上安全进行磋商。
在华盛顿和特拉维夫，军事战略家、两名美国官员和一名西方高级国防官员都在考虑对也门发动袭击，以遏制胡塞武装。
这两名美国官员说，美国官员已经在也门准备了胡塞武装的初步目标，以防拜登政府下令进行报复性打击，但他们补充说，到目前为止，华盛顿还不想冒险爆发更广泛的地区战争。以色列也缓和了对真主党和胡塞武装袭击的反应，在受到攻击时限制了自己的反应，转而依靠自己的防御。
美国现任和前任军事指挥官表示，以色列的防空系统足够先进，可以击落向以色列发射的导弹和无人机，但对国际水域的威胁是一个更大的挑战。
“他们伤害以色列的能力非常、非常有限，”美国军方中央司令部(Central Command)前司令小肯尼思·f·麦肯齐(Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.)上将说。“更大的风险是，如果他们在曼德海峡使用地雷或短程巡航导弹。”
一名以色列高级国防官员表示，如果胡塞的弹道导弹击中以色列，造成重大损失或杀害平民，以色列很难不做出回应。
军事分析人士说，过去几年，以色列与波斯湾的阿拉伯国家发展了强有力的军事和情报合作，其中包括阿拉伯联合酋长国和巴林，这些国家了解胡塞武装的目标，并有打击胡塞武装的经验。
一名熟悉伊朗计划的伊朗官员表示，胡塞武装表示，他们将对也门境内的任何袭击做出回应，关闭通往红海的入口，不分青红皂白地向船只发射无人机和导弹。
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